A Triple Crown tradition
The Disrespected Horse Racing Desk raises a glass to Scott Davis and carries on
The family of Scott Davis, with the help of JLL Columbus, took out a full-page ad that appeared in Thursday's editions of Ohio's Greatest Home Newspaper. The lede goes like this:
As we approach the birthday of our beloved husband and father, alongside the Kentucky Derby, one of his favorite days of the year, we remember him with deep love and gratitude. He was an extraordinary man who led and loved our family with unwavering devotion. Through his courageous battle with brain cancer, he taught us to always be "Strong and Positive," a message we carry with us each day.
Scott "Dutch" Davis died on Feb. 4.
Michael Arace
I spent 26 years as an NHL beat writer and general sports columnist at the Dispatch. Dutch was one of my bosses, technically speaking, but he was more of a beam of sunlight than anything else. He did everything 100%. Like, you never saw anyone swing harder at a golf ball. Like it was said of Jack Benny (Google, kids): If you gave him a ham sandwich, he'd eat it and say, "Man, that was the best ham sandwich I ever had."
Dutch was passionate about horse racing – a day at the Delaware County Fair was shot through with mirth – and, as noted above, the first Saturday in May was one of his favorite days. One hundred percent.
Among the regular column fodder in my space back at Big D was an annual rating of the fields for the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, the Triple Crown of American horse racing. The Horse Racing Desk I assembled – Dutchy, the former racing editor at the Dispatch, Bob Clancy, former racing editor at the Hartford Courant, and Nicole Kraft, an Ohio State Journalism professor and lifelong equestrian – included some smart bettors, and me.
We had a lot of fun for more than a decade, and parimutuel wagering was just a small part of it. Mostly, it was thoughts, observations, and instructions regarding how to risk $2. A lot of homework went into our endeavors. We were, and are, 100%.
Don Davis, who will be hosting the Davis family Derby party, is honoring his brother by taking a place on The Disrespected's Horse Racing Desk. Welcome aboard. You'll regret it, but I might give you a T-Shirt.
The Clanchise and Professor Krafty have matriculated from my old Dispatch desk to The Disrespected. Along with Don, they have smart things to say.
In my house, there's little to no betting, generally speaking. On Derby day, we all pick a different horse and the winner gets bragging rights, which offers sufficient misery, believe me.
Per usual, I'll add my two cents in here before I lay down my two bucks.
Here we go.
Don Davis
Don, at the behest of his brother's family, had his picks published as part of the full-page ad printed in memory of his brother. In this space, he expands his list. It appears in the form he delivered to me.
1 COMMANDMENT- POWERFUL HORSE, REMINDS ME OF LAST YEAR’S WINNER SOVEREIGNTY.
2 THE PUMA-SECOND TO COMMANDMENT BY A NOSE IN THE FLORIDA DERBY.
3 FURTHER ADO-DOMINATED IN THE BLUEGRASS VERY TALENTED
4 RENEGADE- HOW STRONG WAS THE ARKANSAS DERBY FIELD?
5 DANON BOURBON- JAPANESE HORSE COULD BE ANY KIND
6 EMERGING MARKET-LIGHTLY RACED CHAD BROWN ENTRY
Notes: Odds listed for 20-horse field were live as of 11 p.m. Thursday. The horse coming out of the No. 13 gate (Silent Tactic) and the No. 20 (Fulleffort) were scratched in the days after the morning line was released. Great White and Ocelli then drew in on the outside gates. Screenshots from KentuckyDerby.com.
Nicole Kraft
Emerging Market is my pick because he feels like a horse peaking at the right time. He’s undefeated, coming off a Louisiana Derby win that was better than it looked, and training like Chad Brown has him ready to take another leap forward. I know he has only made three career starts, but the colt has been unlucky, not unskilled, and Justify had just as much (little) experience when he captured the 2018 Derby on his way to a Triple Crown. Flavien Prat knows how to get the most from a horse and has eight Derby starts to learn from, including a 2021 win on Country House (albeit via the DQ of Maximum Security).
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Pavlovian, a throwback to racing’s bygone days where double-digit starts was the norm. He has a foundation forged in 10 starts over a variety of tracks and has found success from open and off the pace. That experience will serve him well in a rough-and-tumble 20-horse race, especially as they battle for position.
My heart lands solidly with So Happy, as trainer Mark Glatt saddles his first Derby starter just months after the death of his wife, Dana. The colt showed up in the Santa Anita Derby, and there is no one more experienced than jockey Mike Smith with 29 Derby mounts and two winners (Giacomo in 2005 and Justify).
Finally, Commandment just keeps doing his job—four straight wins, including a Florida Derby that showed he can take a punch and still finish.
Bob Clancy
1. Further Ado, nice win over the track.
2. Commandment, consistent and distance should suit.
3. So Happy, proved he’s not a one-turn horse in Santa Anita Derby.
4. Renegade, only issue is the No. 1 post.
Arace
I've known The Clanchise for 44 years and, let me tell you, he has honed his system over the decades. I know he was supremely excited about a long shot – Silent Tactic, who was 20-1 on the morning line, coming out of the No. 13 gate, before he was scratched due to injury. The 'Chise had to recalibrate, and he came up very chalky. He sees maybe six horses left with the quality to go 1 1/4 miles as a three-year-old, navigate a crowded track and win in front a crowd of 150,000. Then, there's a big dropoff.
Krafty knows trainers because she used to train horses and has inside knowledge of the industry. She also has a feel for racing history and its patterns. Often, she's avoids having any fun and leans on favorites – three of her four picks here are chalky. And then there is her outlier, Pavlovian, who was 52-1 at last check. Yowza. Usually, I'm the idiot picking the 52-1 shot.
I spent many a Derby day on the phone with Dutch, in briefings before the race and debriefings after. When he had a better feel of the Racing Form than his brother Don, there was busting that went one way. When he didn't, the busting went the other way. They were the best of rivals. RIP, Scott F. Davis.
Don is as chalky as 'Chise when it comes to his top picks, but there's no doubt that he has some exotic wagers in his calculations. Thus, I, for one, do not discount his No. 5 (Danon Bourbon) and No. 6 (Emerging Market) picks. It's a question of how to play them, which is often beyond my ken.
I'm a win-place-show guy with a roll of quarters. I like medium-to-long shots with late speed (because hitting on Ferdinand in 1986 spoiled me for life). Saturday, I'm hoping for a hot pace, a meltdown up front, and a late run by Golden Tempo. His odds have been rising. May they keep rising.
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Michael Arace
